Which Way are the Moving Vans Headed?

According to the  2025 National Movers Study | United Van Lines®, the five states where the most moving vans were headed outbound, rather than inbound, were New Jersey, New York, California, North Dakota and Colorado. Seventeen states had over 50% outbound shipments.  Of the five states that had the greatest percentage of shipments leaving the state, one stands out.  As late as 2020, Colorado had always had fewer than 50 percent outbound shipments.  Since 2021, however, they have seen a steady rise in outbound shipments compared to inbound shipments.

According to United Van Lines, "U.S. movers are moving primarily for the opportunity to be closer to family (29%), company transfer/new job (26%) and retirement (14%)" and a "broad migration shift toward smaller cities and towns is redefining American relocation patterns."

According to a United Van Lines Press release, “United has tracked migration patterns annually on a state-by-state basis since 1977.  ... This study ranks the states based on the inbound and outbound percentages of total moves in each state. United classifies states as “high inbound” if 55 percent or more of the moves are going into a state, “high outbound” if 55 percent or more moves were coming out of a state or “balanced” if the difference between inbound and outbound is negligible.“  

The percentages we report refer to the share of the total moves that were outbound, as opposed to inbound. 

The data ranks the states from highest to lowest based on their outbound/moving out percentage. A state with the highest percentage of outbound shipments is ranked 1 and the state with lowest outward movement is ranked 48.  (Alaska and Hawaii are not included).  READ MORE

Population Winners and Losers in 2025

In 2025, according to the U.S. Census the five states that lost the most population per 1000 were Vermont, Hawaii, West Virginia, New Mexico and California. The states that increased the most in popoulation were Utah, Texas North and South Carolina, and Idaho, with all showing double digit gains.

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50-State Average of Unfunded Pension Benefits

Our 2025 Financial State of the States report paints a stark picture of fiscal irresponsibility across the U.S., with unfunded pension liabilities emerging as one of the most pressing threats to long-term state solvency. 

These liabilities represent promised retirement benefits to public employees—such as teachers, firefighters, and state workers—that governments have committed to but failed to adequately fund. By shortchanging pension contributions today, states are effectively borrowing from the future, shifting massive costs onto tomorrow's taxpayers. This practice not only undermines balanced budgets but also erodes public trust in government accounting. Drawing from the most recent audited financial reports (primarily fiscal year 2024, with some states using 2023 data due to delays), we reveal a collective national shortfall that underscores the urgency for reform.  READ MORE

Chicago's Unfunded Pension Benefits

Chicago's unfunded pension benefits continue to rise way above the national average for the top U.S. cities, growing from $20 billion in 2014 to over $37 billion in 2023.  Funding of pensions and OPEB has been a financial and poltical problem for years in Chicago, with no end in sight.   READ MORE

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Coming Revenue Crisis?

Across all 50 states from 2019 to 2023, the average percentage change in intergovernmental revenue per capita (the most efficient way to compare states) was a striking 58 percent!  The percentage change ranged from 30.6 percent in Idaho to 114 percent  in Oklahoma. Since the lion’s share of intergovernmental revenue to states comes from the federal government, and most of the increase since 2019 was Covid aid, the question is how will states make up the difference when the Covid grant monies run out. Presumably, the states will have to raise taxes or cut services significantly. States have become used to that extra revenue. Will they be prepared for what comes next?  

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Are Americans Richer Now Than They Were in 2019?

Personal income per capita in the United States grew on average $12,816 or 23.9 percent since 2019, which certainly sounds like a big jump.  However, in that same time period personal consumption per capita also rose significantly; on average between 2019 and 2023 (the most recent data available) personal consumption spending went up 25.9 percent.  These figures are not adjusted for inflation, but they show that spending increased more than personal income.

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What is the true federal deficit?

The chart below illustrates three different measures of the federal deficit. You choose: Which number do you like best? 

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Winners and Losers in Student Enrollment

Between 2019 and 2024 public school enrollment in the U.S. decreased by over 1.3 million.  The three states that lost the most were California, New York and Illinois.  The states that gained the most students were Texas, Florida and South Carolina. This is not all that surprising since these three states have also ranked among the states to have the largest percentage increases in population in recent years, while the biggest losers have consistently ranked among the states to lose the most residents. There are, of course, myriad reasons that overall student enrollment has declined--too many to speculate about here--but the Covid pandemic may have been the most important factor.

For more information about public school enrollment go to Data-Z.org, where you can compare states going back to 1999.  You can also explore our many demographic, economic and financlal data series for all 50 states.  READ MORE

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Is California a Turkey State?

What state consumes the most turkey per person on Thanksgiving?  Why, California, of course--the largest state in the Union.  Besides turkeys consumed, California also has the most federal taxpayers, according to the IRS.  However, in 2023 California lost the most tax filers, 1,277,731 to be precise.  No other state lost tax filers.

And where did those tax filers go?  Well, maybe they wll be eating turkey in Florida and Texas, which both saw an increase of over one million tax filers.  No other states came even close to gaining that many taxpayers. So is California a turkey state in more ways than one?  READ MORE

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Taxpayer Burden or Surplus in the 2024 Swing States?

Truth in Accounting's most recent Financial State of the States, which came out on October 3, 2024, shows that only three out of the seven swing states had a Taxpayer SurplusTM according to their ACFR data for 2023.  All the swing states had a Taxpayer BurdenTM  between 2014 and 2020.  The states that switched from having a burden to having a surplus were Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.  The other four swing states--Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania--maintained their burden status at least through 2022.  Two of those states, Arizona and Nevada, did not release their financial statements in time to be included in our report.  

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