Medicare Promises

This is the net present value for unfunded Medicare obligations -- the present value of the federal government's projections for payroll tax revenue less expenditures. We use a "closed group" perspective, and exclude the future participants category from our calculation. We also choose to use the government's more conservative "Illustrative Alternative Scenario" assumptions, which differ from the assumptions underlying the present value calculations for Medicare reported in the Statement of Social Insurance in the annual Financial Report of the U.S. Government.

Source: Financial Report of the U.S. Government, by the Bureau of the Fiscal Service, U.S. Department of the Treasury.

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